House Price Change - Where's Hot & Where's Not - March 2015

Key Headlines

  • Annual growth is still the strongest in the South of England though there are some early signs that growth may be slowing in some areas of the South.
  • Estimated average price across Greater London exceeds £500,000.
  • The lowest average prices in England in Wales are predominantly in South Wales, with 4 Principal Areas all showing an estimated average price of under £125,000.
  • The most expensive areas (Greater London & Surrey) are showing the largest negative difference between the LocationCounts Rank (***) over the last 5 years versus the last 12 months. This could be a sign that growth is slowing in these areas compared to elsewhere in the country.
  • 30% of Counties/Principal Areas are showing a peak of estimated average price in January 2015 (the latest month's data). Greater London, Surrey & Berkshire are below peaks set in 2014 which again could be an indication that generally growth is slowing (however, the seasonal nature of the property market could be a factor).
(data up to and including January 2015)

Information contained within this report is presented at an area (English Counties, Welsh Principal Areas) level. LocationCounts provides data for a variety of geographical areas across England & Wales down to an individual postcode level. To see detailed information for where you live then enter a location (postcode, location or area) below and select from the list:

    Estimated Average House Prices (*)

    • Highest estimated average prices are in Greater London & neighbouring Counties
    • Lowest estimated average prices are in South Wales
    • North Yorkshire & Cheshire buck the North/South divide trend with estimated average prices exceeding £200,000

    NOTE: care should be taken when comparing estimated average prices between areas of the country as the make-up of properties differs considerably. Take, for example, Northumberland and Tyne & Wear. The estimated average price in Northumberland is approximately £40,000 more than in Tyne & Wear. However, 30% of properties in Northumberland are detached while only 12% of properties in Tyne & Wear are detached. In fact, the estimated average prices for Terraced properties in Tyne & Wear exceeds that for terraced properties in Northumberland.

    View of Estimated Average House Prices by County in England and Wales

    Top/Bottom Five Areas

      Area Estimated Avg Price
    Top5 Greater London Authority £533,264
      Surrey £481,888
      Buckinghamshire £440,985
      Isles of Scilly £424,152
      Hertfordshire £420,364
    Bottom 5 County Durham £133,564
      Neath Port Talbot £123,062
      Rhondda Cynon Taf £116,015
      Merthyr Tydfil £106,196
      Blaenau Gwent £94,079
    (See table below for full details of each area)

    Short/Medium Term Price Change (12 Months) (**)

    • All areas of England & Wales showing some degree of growth
    • Areas to the immediate north of Greater London are showing the greatest growth
    • Norfolk & Suffolk are also showing double digit growth
    • The West Midlands and North Wales are generally showing the slowest growth

    View of Percentage Change over 12 months in Counties in England and Wales

    Top/Bottom Five Areas

      Area 12M Chg (%)
    Top5 Oxfordshire County 15.35
      Buckinghamshire 15.02
      Bedfordshire 14.72
      Hertfordshire 12.90
      Norfolk 10.72
    Bottom 5 Conwy 2.89
      Worcestershire 2.79
      Flintshire 2.43
      Denbighshire 2.32
      Shropshire 2.20
    (See table below for full details of each area)

    Longer Term Price Change (5 Years) (**)

    • The 5 year growth trend is showing that Greater London and bordering counties are showing the greatest growth
    • Much of the North of England and the North of Wales is showing minimal growth over the last 5 years. However, when comparing the 5 year growth to the 12 month growth, there are signs that prices are beginning to show signs of recovery in these areas

    View of Percentage Change over 5 Years in Counties in England and Wales

    Top/Bottom Five Areas

      Area 5Yr Chg (%)
    Top5 Greater London Authority 29.02
      Hertfordshire 25.46
      Buckinghamshire 24.24
      Bedfordshire 22.72
      Oxfordshire County 20.68
    Bottom 5 Flintshire 1.61
      County Durham 1.47
      Conwy 1.37
      West Yorkshire 1.35
      Denbighshire 1.22
    (See table below for full details of each area)

    Short/Medium Term v. Longer Term View

    LocationCounts ranks (***) areas across the country in a range of 1 to 100 (1 being the greatest % change, 100 being the lowest % change). The rank of each area allows us to compare locations against each other. By comparing the difference in rank over the Last 5 Years to the rank in the Last 12 Months we can start to see those areas where house price increase has picked up in the past 12 months compared to the previous 5 years as a whole.

    This analysis shows that many areas away from Greater London are seeing the biggest shift in prices compared to what has happened previously in those areas. This again could be an indication that prices are beginning to recover away from Greater London while price growth in areas around the capital are beginning to slow in comparison.

    NOTE: a negative change in rank does NOT mean that house prices have decreased, it merely indicates that growth in the past 12 months has not been as great as may have been predicted based on the previous 4 year period and how well other areas of the country have grown.

    View of Rank Changes in Counties in England and Wales

    Top/Bottom Five Areas

      Area 5Yr to 12m Rank Chg
    Top5 North Yorkshire 26
      Norfolk 24
      Suffolk 23
      Devon 23
      Cheshire 21
    Bottom 5 Worcestershire -14
      Herefordshire -17
      West Sussex -21
      Greater London Authority -26
      Surrey -49
    (See table below for full details of each area)

    Where's Lagging Behind The Peak

    House prices in some areas of England & Wales are now the highest they've ever been. However, many areas are behind a peak they've previously reached. This map shows those areas where prices are below their peak. Interesting, much of the West of the country are still behind a peak reached in 2007 while much of the South & East of the country are behind a peak reached more recently. Again, this could indicate that price growth in some areas of the country is beginning to slow though the seasonality of the housing market could also be a factor.

    View of Difference from Peak in Counties in England and Wales

    Top Five With Most To Catch Up

      Area Diff from Peak (%) Peak Month
    Top5 Powys -8.50 Aug-07
      West Yorkshire -8.62 Jan-08
      Surrey -8.70 Nov-14
      Shropshire -9.03 Oct-07
      Lancashire -10.97 Aug-07




    Full Table of Data - Areas (Counties)

    Area 12M Chg (%) 5Yr Chg (%) 12M Chg Rank 5yr Chg Rank 5yr to 12M Rank Chg Diff from Peak (%) Est Avg Price (all types) Peak Month
    Bedfordshire 14.72 22.72 8 16 8 0.00 271,000 Jan-15
    Berkshire 9.29 20.03 29 21 -8 -4.78 365,000 Jul-14
    Blaenau Gwent 7.12 12.01 53 45 -8 0.00 94,000 Jan-15
    Bridgend 5.73 9.68 66 54 -12 -1.64 156,000 Sep-07
    Bristol 8.56 13.52 35 35 0 -1.68 237,000 Aug-14
    Buckinghamshire 15.02 24.24 8 13 5 0.00 441,000 Jan-15
    Caerphilly 7.29 12.79 50 40 -10 -0.27 140,000 Jul-14
    Cambridgeshire 8.93 14.16 36 37 1 0.00 265,000 Jan-15
    Cardiff 8.38 13.39 37 36 -1 0.00 218,000 Jan-15
    Carmarthenshire 4.62 7.12 76 67 -9 -3.66 146,000 Sep-07
    Ceredigion 5.48 6.17 69 71 2 -3.39 187,000 Sep-07
    Cheshire 7.96 7.60 42 63 21 0.00 232,000 Jan-15
    Conwy 2.89 1.37 91 94 3 -7.31 166,000 Aug-07
    Cornwall 6.67 4.61 58 75 17 -2.98 235,000 Sep-07
    County Durham 3.07 1.47 90 93 3 -6.33 134,000 May-08
    Cumbria 3.70 1.62 85 92 7 -7.67 171,000 Oct-07
    Denbighshire 2.32 1.22 94 94 0 -6.73 150,000 Aug-07
    Derbyshire 7.38 8.19 50 62 12 -1.43 175,000 Oct-07
    Devon 7.36 5.38 50 73 23 -1.90 236,000 Aug-07
    Dorset 7.12 10.14 52 52 0 -0.89 290,000 Sep-14
    East Sussex 9.36 17.81 28 25 -3 -0.38 306,000 Aug-14
    East Yorkshire 7.14 8.96 52 58 6 0.00 158,000 Jan-15
    Essex 9.63 17.02 27 27 0 0.00 286,000 Jan-15
    Flintshire 2.43 1.61 95 92 -3 -7.66 163,000 Aug-07
    Gloucestershire 7.09 11.46 52 46 -6 -1.60 256,000 Sep-14
    Greater London Authority 9.27 29.02 34 8 -26 -5.53 533,000 Jul-14
    Greater Manchester 8.65 9.83 36 54 18 -0.68 167,000 Aug-14
    Gwynedd 3.90 3.04 83 83 0 -6.59 154,000 Aug-07
    Hampshire 8.65 14.44 35 36 1 0.00 300,000 Jan-15
    Herefordshire 3.32 6.02 87 70 -17 -5.46 230,000 Aug-14
    Hertfordshire 12.90 25.46 10 11 1 0.00 420,000 Jan-15
    Isle of Anglesey 3.62 2.11 85 89 4 -8.36 159,000 Aug-07
    Isle of Wight 7.92 11.47 43 47 4 0.00 220,000 Jan-15
    Isles of Scilly 6.41 4.30 61 77 16 -3.57 424,000 Sep-07
    Kent 9.22 15.49 33 32 -1 -0.97 279,000 Aug-14
    Lancashire 4.23 2.32 79 88 9 -10.97 146,000 Aug-07
    Leicestershire 5.95 8.73 63 59 -4 -2.59 193,000 Aug-14
    Lincolnshire 4.12 6.76 78 67 -11 -3.35 159,000 Sep-07
    Merseyside 3.68 2.27 85 88 3 -6.98 148,000 Aug-07
    Merthyr Tydfil 6.10 9.99 63 53 -10 -1.12 106,000 Aug-07
    Monmouthshire 7.96 13.76 42 35 -7 0.00 263,000 Jan-15
    Neath Port Talbot 5.57 8.62 67 60 -7 -2.32 123,000 Aug-07
    Newport 7.69 13.55 46 35 -11 0.00 186,000 Jan-15
    Norfolk 10.72 12.00 20 44 24 0.00 217,000 Jan-15
    North Yorkshire 7.86 6.89 42 68 26 0.00 240,000 Jan-15
    Northamptonshire 8.30 14.26 43 35 -8 0.00 216,000 Jan-15
    Northumberland 4.83 2.67 73 86 13 -5.68 178,000 Jul-07
    Nottinghamshire 7.68 8.75 46 59 13 -1.43 168,000 Oct-07
    Oxfordshire County 15.35 20.68 4 20 16 0.00 399,000 Jan-15
    Pembrokeshire 4.28 5.94 79 71 -8 -5.31 174,000 Sep-07
    Powys 4.34 4.82 79 76 -3 -8.50 178,000 Aug-07
    Rhondda Cynon Taf 6.49 10.68 59 50 -9 -1.48 116,000 Sep-07
    Rutland 6.35 10.29 61 51 -10 -0.64 300,000 Aug-14
    Shropshire 2.20 1.99 92 89 -3 -9.03 189,000 Oct-07
    Somerset 8.37 11.63 37 45 8 -2.10 262,000 Jul-14
    South Yorkshire 4.44 3.44 78 82 4 -7.20 144,000 Nov-07
    Staffordshire 6.08 6.15 61 70 9 -5.08 167,000 Aug-07
    Suffolk 10.64 12.84 17 40 23 0.00 239,000 Jan-15
    Surrey 4.82 18.86 72 23 -49 -8.70 482,000 Nov-14
    Swansea 4.50 7.23 76 67 -9 -4.38 162,000 Sep-07
    The Vale of Glamorgan 8.40 13.03 37 39 2 0.00 227,000 Jan-15
    Torfaen 7.19 13.07 52 38 -14 0.00 153,000 Jan-15
    Tyne & Wear 4.37 2.47 78 87 9 -6.01 148,000 Jul-07
    Warwickshire 7.10 9.71 53 54 1 -0.13 248,000 Aug-14
    West Midlands 4.46 5.32 77 73 -4 -4.61 165,000 Nov-14
    West Sussex 7.53 17.19 47 26 -21 -0.99 342,000 Dec-14
    West Yorkshire 3.57 1.35 85 93 8 -8.62 155,000 Jan-08
    Wiltshire 9.22 13.12 29 38 9 0.00 272,000 Jan-15
    Worcestershire 2.79 5.26 88 74 -14 -3.44 231,000 Aug-14
    Wrexham 4.07 4.14 81 78 -3 -3.34 166,000 Aug-07

    To see results where you live then enter your postcode below and select from the list

      About The Data and Methodology

      Source data for house price transactions is obtained from the Land Registry and is licenced under the Open Government Licence V2.0. All data displayed in the above table has been calculated using algorithms designed by LocationCounts © 2014 - 2015 . Data up to and including January 2015.

      * The Estimated Average Price for each area (e.g. Civil Parish, Local Government District, County) is based on the average for all Postcodes contained within that area. The Estimated Average Price for each Postcode is based on the closest sales to that Postcode weighted by the proximity to the Postcode itself.

      ** The Price Change for each area e.g. Civil Parish, Local Government District, County) is based on the average price change for all Postcodes contained within that area. The average price change for each Postcode is based on the closest sales each month to that Postcode weighted by the proximity to the Postcode itself.

      *** LocationCounts Ranks are a mechanism that allows us to compare locations across the country with one another (see our help pages for more information). All areas which are a self-contained boundary are ranked against each other; these include Counties, Local Government Districts and various Postcode Code groupings.

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